A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
