From Reluctant Respect to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A unexpected operation on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power announces its intention to govern indefinitely.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even envy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Russia once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for this long.”

Such commentary have fed a mood of introspection among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the American action appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – hoping to forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government just in late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”