Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
