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At first, Donald Trump seemed to take a strong position regarding Ukraine. Following issuing statements of "severe consequences" in August in case Russia's president persisted obstructing truce negotiations, he ultimately enacted substantial restrictions on the Russian biggest petroleum corporations, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action seriously impacted Putin's capacity to finance his aggression in the region.

But, through his latest 28-point peace plan for the conflict, which was created by US and Russian officials excluding Ukraine's or European involvement, he has apparently returned to his Russia-friendly position.

Benefiting Invasion

This proposal would effectively benefit the Russian leader for attacking a sovereign nation while placing the country's democratic system in peril. Although bold statements that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be confirmed", much of the proposal actually compromise that same autonomy. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his corporate background, the former president persists to treat the war as a basic territorial dispute, as if giving Putin a portion of Ukraine's land will appease the leader. Yet, Russia's invasion is not only about occupying a damaged area of economically weakened land in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's clear desire to eliminate it so it stops serves as an appealing model for the Russia's population of the democratic leadership that his increasing authoritarian rule prevents them.

Land Surrenders

Although maintaining in status the already split regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's initiative would compel Ukraine to give up the entire Donetsk province. Aside from favoring Russia with territory that its forces have been unsuccessful to capture in over a ten years of warfare, this concession would make Ukraine's military defenses severely weakened.

This region is the location of the nation's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the entrenched protective structures that represent a critical impediment to invading forces. Trump would have the Ukrainian military leave these fortifications, leaving Putin a open way to the capital should he subsequently choose to renew the war.

Defense Limitations

Additionally, in a action that would make renewed conflict easier for the Russian military, Trump would mandate Ukraine to reduce the numbers of its military from their present 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a cap of 600,000. Significantly, Trump's proposal imposes no such limits on Russia's military.

In what appears as a accommodation to Putin's campaign to portray the nation's legitimate leadership as extremists, the proposal asserts: "Any extremist ideology and activities must be opposed and forbidden." Apparently to highlight this aspect, it demands that "The nation will hold political contests in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, the proposal sets no requirement that Putin jeopardize his authoritarian rule by holding elections in his own country.

Defense Guarantees

Certainly, the initiative has the Russian Federation promise not to "attack other states" and to "enshrine in regulation its position of non-aggression towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". Yet considering that Putin has violated equivalent accords in the previous instances – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia promised to recognize Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for surrendering its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow committed to a truce and a return of seized land in the Donbas to Kyiv – how should anyone have confidence in Putin this time?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so determined on external defense commitments. While the proposal warns of a "strong unified military response" should Russia restart its military campaign, and includes that "Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees", the particulars include fuzzy to concerning. The plan would not only prevent the nation Nato membership but also prohibit Nato members from positioning forces on Ukraine's soil, thereby preventing the reassurance force, reportedly led by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been relying to deter Putin from replenishing his reduced military, rearming, and resuming aggression.

World Concern

Another supplementary accord reportedly would grant Ukraine with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any future "serious, deliberate, and sustained aggression" by the Russian Federation on the country "shall be regarded as an attack threatening the peace and security of the allied countries." This implies a armed reaction. But unlike a capable Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's most reliable deterrent against additional Russian aggression – the credibility of the side agreement would depend on the willingness of Western powers, like Trump, to react through arms to Russia's aggression, an action they have {not