The US Seizure of Maduro: How Trump Has Transformed the World's Superpower into a Rogue State
Within the widespread uncertainty regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – they set a deeply alarming precedent.
A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move
The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its premier large-scale offensive on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.
The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and capture its head of state – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.
Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis
Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and rejected prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the leadership-stricken government are even more hardline.
A Shift in Global Role
A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is converting it into a renegade nation.
He holds the view that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He claims that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.
An Attack Without Legal Justification
George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or congressional approval; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.
Disregard the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will likely encourage further adventurism.
The Thin Pretext and True Motives
It is widely rejected the justification that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.
Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance
The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.
Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing.
We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may regret it if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.
