War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a sham, with key opposition groups banned, numerous figures imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The ruling junta is holding a phased ballot nearly five years after it took control in a takeover, which sparked widespread opposition and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the junta, with backing from Beijing, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the costly deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the freedoms of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been charged for disrupting or opposing the polls under a recently enacted legislation which carries severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a film promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, adding that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats urging people to shun the polls.

The military has been fighting on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own forces. It lost control of vast areas of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year after relentless airstrikes enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it challenging to forecast a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the local levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while others are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into phases, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has urged negotiations to come before any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not intended for the outside world," a junta spokesman stated at a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".